A simulation model for estimating human error probability

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Publication Date


Publication Title

31st European Modeling and Simulation Symposium, EMSS 2019

First Page


Last Page



Human Error, Modeling, Simulation, System Dynamics


© 2019 Dime Universita di Genova, DIMEG University of Calabria. This paper describes the system dynamics architecture of a simulation model which estimates human error probability for humans performing certain tasks in a given scenario. Human error probability is estimated as a function of the type of tasks performed and the number of performance shaping factors. In this work, the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method is utilized for estimating the probability of human error. The system dynamics simulation model captures the cause and effect relationships of the SPAR-H defined performance shaping factors that affect human error and uses them to assess the overall human error probability of the system. The present work is a continuation of our previous work on task analysis, workload and human reliability assessment simulation and aims to evaluate the system dynamics simulation as a potential approach to assess human reliability.

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